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The Question of Hammond's Dead Rat

CitizensOversight (2015-06-08) RayLutz

This Page: https://https://copswiki.org/Common/M1600

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THE QUESTION OF HAMMOND'S DEAD RAT

Text of Hammond 2004: http://www.copswiki.org/…/Comm…/M1592/Hammond_et_al_2004.pdf

I'd like to start a new thread here to confront the question of the dead rat, discovered in the high-percentage GMO feed treatment group, on day 82 into the 90-day feeding trial. In that study, there were 10 groups of 40 rats each (20 M/ 20 F), for a total of 400 rats. One group was fed Roundup Ready corn to a level of 11%, and another to the level of 33%. All the other rats (320) were in control groups and did not receive any GMO feed.

Now in the control groups, there was a rat with a broken nose, and it was euthanized. It did not die on its own, and we know the reason that it died.

In the 33% treatment group, one rat did die, on its own, and for no apparent reason. Hammond decided it was appropriate to ignore the dead rat. It was not mentioned in the abstract, and the conclusions did not mention the fact that they did not have any rationale for discarding the data point (such rationale would be a clear reason for the death, like "we killed it" for a broken nose, or if it had an unrelated disease, which was identified.)

They claim that there are no risk factors in eating GMO food. So they really did not know what to look for, and despite looking for a reason, could find nothing.

I. wonder, if all ten rats died on day 82 in the treatment group, if they could similarly exclude the data. "All the rats died, but we could not find out why, so we have concluded that it is unrelated to the study" Of course not, I hope you say. Okay, let's dial that back. What if half the rats die... still concerned? I still hope so.

What about one rat? Well so far, the bias I have encountered here on GMOSF is that it is irrelevant and they did the right thing by ignoring the data in their analysis (otherwise they would have to say "10% of the rats died" when fed 33% GMO corn! OMG)

Let's say it is a random occurrence. What is the likelihood that the rat dies only in the high-dosage treatment group and not anywhere else? 10%. But that means also that 90% of the time, we should be concerned about this rat. And we want to be 95% of the time unconcerned about the rat. For this data to be discarded, it seems we would need to see at least 9 other rats die. That would indicate an even chance of death anywhere, and would allow us to throw it out.

I. think I smell a rat.

David Brown: Please cite peer reviewed science to support your argument.
Ray Lutz: See the Hammond Study, cited above, David Brown. Please try to address the questions I pose above and come out of the "provide evidence" corner. Why is it that we can disregard the rat??
Mark D Linhart: 1 paper is a statistical anomaly http://www.geneticliteracyproject.org/2013/10/08/with-2000-global-studies-confirming-safety-gm-foods-among-most-analyzed-subject-in-science With 2000+ global studies affirming safety, GM foods among most analyzed... GENETICLITERACYPROJECT.ORG
Tyson Gustus: Lol... We just spent a day thoroughly examining peer review, only to determine it's essentially a worthless standard. To ask for it now without saying so in jest is intellectually dishonest, David Brown
Mark D Linhart: Tyson, you came to that conclusion. It was not shared by the majority of people on that thread.
Thomas Borreson: >> It was not mentioned in the abstract

Well, yes, because it's an abstract an an abstract is typically highly constrained for word count and their purpose is to give an extremely brief capsule summary of what the study is about to assist in article searches.

>> I wonder, if all ten rats died on day 82 in the treatment group, if they could similarly exclude the data.

What's highly relevant is that this didn't actually happen.

>> What is the likelihood that the rat dies only in the high-dosage treatment group and not anywhere else? 10%.

More relevantly to determining wether the number of deaths is significant would be to look at typical death rates of that particular species of rat with age. If losing a single rat out of 400 is a sufficiently common experience, I can see why he would ignore it.

Any hypotheses that the death was due to glyphosate poisoning would beg the question of why this rat uniquely experienced that effect and no trend developed.
Ray Lutz: Nope, Mark D Linhart, we need to look at this one study and evaluate if it was appropriate to disregard the rat. Then we can go to the other 2000 studies one by one and see if they are true or bogus.
Jerrald Hayes: I don't know there seems to be an implication being made (on someone's part) here that that rat must have, might have, or probably died because of GMOs rather than any one of a hundred possible other causes. Correctly me if wrong but without a clear unambiguous explanation or understanding of how that rat died it absolutely SHOULD be excluded from the study.
Mark D Linhart: That is your contension, not backed by any evidence whatsoever.
Ray Lutz: Thomas Borreson -- Glyphosate is not used in this study
Mark D Linhart: Do you have any evidence why the rat should be included? It is your claim, please provide evidence.
David Brown: The paper cited in the OP does not support the argument made in the OP Ray Lutz. Please cite literature that supports your argument.
Ray Lutz: Jerrald Hayes, you said "Correctly me if wrong but without a clear unambiguous explanation or understanding of how that rat died it absolutely SHOULD be excluded from the study."

I would agree with that if you also had a clear and unambiguous model for how GMOs might kill rats. Since the current model does to include that, then any analysis you might perform on the rat may miss the cause and why it is related to GMO feed.
Mark D Linhart: Do you have any evidence for that claim Ray Lutz? You will continue being challenged to support your assertion.
Tyson Gustus: No, Mark. I provided data and you provided nothing but anecdotes. The data is clear. Peer review fails its intended purpose most of the time.
Ray Lutz: The rat is part of the study. To leave it in is the default. To take it out has to be explained. I say treat it as part of the study and state clearly that one rat died for unknown causes, and so there is a 10% fatality rate.

If you want to take it out, then you have to provide rationale for that, not me.
Thomas Borreson: Brain fart on my part. Correction: glyphosate-tolerant feed
David Brown: Tyson Gustus you are off topic.
Tyson Gustus]] LOL... You guys are a joke.
David Brown]] Ray Lutz Argument by assertion is not sufficient for this forum.
Mark D Linhart]] Several rationales were posted, you ignored them and continue asking the same question that has been answered.
Matthew Fastiggi]] "no apparent cause of death" - and why is it that you think all the rats in a test group have to have the exact same physiological makeup?
Mark D Linhart]] When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser.
David Brown]] Tyson Gustus Your comments are disrespectful and not appropriate for this forum.
Matthew Fastiggi]] and if the rat WAS left in - I still don't see how that definitively proves your agenda...
David Brown]] In yet another thread Ray Lutz you are arguing by assertion and refusing to support your claims. That is is a violation of forum rules
Ray Lutz]] What I am doing is trying to get you guys to actually think about this. Put on your thinking caps and take off your "give me evidence" hats. If you can't even explain the death, why on earth is it okay to just pull out the fact that it died.
Thomas Borreson]] >> LOL... You guys are a joke.

Okay. Bye. smile emoticon
Mark D Linhart]] What we are trying to do is get you to support your assertions with literature. If you can do that we will happily 'put our thinking caps on'.
Thomas Borreson]] >> Put on your thinking caps and take off your "give me evidence" hats.

Forgoing evidence for the sake of speculation is somewhat inverse to the purpose of this group.
Matthew Fastiggi]] because it can't be explained Ray Lutz. Why would you put the rat in if you're testing that compound X doesn't cause harm, when it can't be explained how the rat died, and that compound X wasn't the reason??
Ray Lutz]] We are talking about the Hammond article. He pulls the rat out of the data set without citing literature. Are you okay with that?
Mark D Linhart]] Yes. Several rationales have been cited and are appropriate.
Ray Lutz]] Please provide citations for your assertion that it is okay to pull out the rat from the dataset.
Matthew Fastiggi]] Ray - can you please address my questions/comments
Mark D Linhart]] That is not my assertion. That is what was done. The assertion is that it was inappropriate. Please provide evidence for this assertion.
Thomas Borreson]] >> He pulls the rat out of the data set without citing literature. Are you okay with that?

Yes. I don't really need a paper's author to walk me through the concept of an outlier. If he had left the single rat in the data set, I wouldn't think much of the individual data point.
Ray Lutz]] Thomas Borreson, how many rats have to die before you start to consider it as valid data, and mathematically why? I already presented the math from my perspective. There is a 90% chance tha this is good data and not an outlier.
Matthew Fastiggi]] Ray?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573465709459350&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:00am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/lawrence.boyd.121?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/lawrence.boyd.121?fref=ufi][Bill Boyd]] I can't believe the level of crazy here. Rats die all the time during experiments, mostly of old age. The appropriate way to enter that is not observed or NA, not applicable. This reduces the number of observation and the power of the statistics but with 400 rats.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573465976125990&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:00am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573465976125990][7]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] Really, I would consider it notably more suspect if the author had attempted to draw a conclusion from the sudden death of this one rat.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573466406125947&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:01am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573466406125947][10]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, lets indeed put on our thinking caps.

That one rat died at 82 days. It was found dead after an unknown length of time. When something dies, it undergoes a lot of physiological and biochemical changes.

How do you do any sort of meaningful comparison of physiological and biochemical data taken from a dead rat that died 8 days before the conclusion to data from live rats or rats killed immediately before a test that have undergone an additional 8 days of treatment.

You can't. You simply can't. At that point including the dead rat in any of the tests done would be completely inaccurate. Its not that Hammond et al. didn't pull it without justification, they had no choice. You can't include that rat in any of the different tests required of an 90-day acute toxicity study.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573466586125929&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:04am]] · Edited · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573466586125929][6]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] Ray Lutz You are suggesting that the authors did something wrong. We assess such claims by reference to literature on experimental design and analysis. It is not our job to prove every baseless claim wrong. If is your job to support your claim with reference to literature.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573467399459181&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:04am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573467399459181][6]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier

Causes
Outliers can have many anomalous causes. A physical apparatus for taking measurements may have suffered a transient malfunction. There may have been an error in data transmission or transcription. Outliers arise due to changes in system behaviour, fraudulent behaviour, human error, instrument error or simply through natural deviations in populations. A sample may have been contaminated with elements from outside the population being examined.
vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv
--->Alternatively, an outlier could be the result of a flaw in the assumed theory, calling for further investigation by the researcher.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Additionally, the pathological appearance of outliers of a certain form appears in a variety of datasets, indicating that the causative mechanism for the data might differ at the extreme end (King effect).

Outlier - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In statistics, an outlier is an observation point that is distant from other observations.[1] An outlier may be...

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Chad, isn't that required as part of the IACUC protocol's? You can't include animals that do not complete the study for any reason.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573467559459165&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:05am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573467559459165][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Ray Lutz, one needs very strong evidence to include outliers in statistical calculations. Do you have any evidence at all?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573467879459133&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:07am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573467879459133][5]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] "It was found dead after an unknown length of time" ?? Don't they regularly inspect these rats? Don't they keep a log of such inspections? Can't they at least pin it down a bit more?

And the fact that the death occurs at the end of the study does not mean it is any less meaningful. That's why they run the test for 90 days, to try to include effects that take longer to become apparent.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Please provide citations for your assertion that it is okay to pull out the rat from the dataset.

A 100-level stats course?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Do you have any evidence.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468106125777&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:08am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] because it can't be explained Ray Lutz. Why would you put the rat in if you're testing that compound X doesn't cause harm, when it can't be explained how the rat died, and that compound X wasn't the reason??

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468139459107&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:08am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573468139459107][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, nobody sits in the animal facilities 24 hours a day. When I say "unknown length of time" I am referring to you wouldn't know if it died 10 minutes ago or 2 hours ago.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468146125773&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:09am]] · Edited · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573468146125773][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] From Chauvenet's criterion (wikipedia)

Criticism
Deletion of outlier data is a controversial practice frowned on by many scientists and science instructors; while Chauvenet's criterion provides an objective and quantitative method for data rejection, it does not make the practice more scientifically or methodologically sound, especially in small sets or where a normal distribution cannot be assumed. Rejection of outliers is more acceptable in areas of practice where the underlying model of the process being measured and the usual distribution of measurement error are confidently known.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468412792413&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:10am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] because it can't be explained Ray Lutz. Why would you put the rat in if you're testing that compound X doesn't cause harm, when it can't be explained how the rat died, and that compound X wasn't the reason??

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468499459071&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:11am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573468499459071][3]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Please note that we don't know the underlying process of GMO poisoning.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468526125735&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:11am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] lol....any evidence of 'GMO poisoning'.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468579459063&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:11am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573468579459063][3]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/megan.windsor.3?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/megan.windsor.3?fref=ufi][Megan Windsor]] Because there is none.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468606125727&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:12am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573468606125727][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Round and round the ideology wheel we go.......

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468686125719&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:12am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573468686125719][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] Please note that it can't be explained Ray Lutz. Why would you put the rat in if you're testing that compound X doesn't cause harm, when it can't be explained how the rat died, and that compound X wasn't the reason??

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468749459046&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:13am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573468749459046][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] We do not know the process of GMO poisoning. QUOTE
Rejection of outliers is more acceptable in areas of practice where the underlying model of the process being measured and the usual distribution of measurement error are confidently known.
UNQUOTE
We do not know the underlying model of GMO poisoning, and thus we cannot exclude the data point. It is unsound scientific practice to do so.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Please note that we don't know the underlying process of GMO poisoning.

Or have any evidence that this is a thing.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] I agree, Ray Lutz, one should not delete outlier data. However we are not talking about a proper outlier. We are talking about a rat whose data would be meaningless in comparison. You are comparing an 82 day dead rat that has already undergone physiological and biochemical changes to 90-day still living rats. The death and length of time would make any physiological or biochemical comparison meaningless.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] No Ray Lutz, including the dead rat is unsound scientific and statistical practice.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573468979459023&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:14am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573468979459023][3]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] It would be like comparing health data from a teenager who died in the middle of the night to data from myself who is still living. That sort of comparison is meaningless.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469086125679&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:15am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469086125679][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] The hypothesis being tested in the HAMMOND study is that GMO crops cause harm. The study tries to find it, and if no harm is found, then it does not prove that GMO does not cause harm, just that no harm was found. But to find harm and the exclude it is unsound scientific practice.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> QUOTE
Rejection of outliers is more acceptable in areas of practice where the underlying model of the process being measured and the usual distribution of measurement error are confidently known.

Yes. They did microscopic tissue examination of the rat which should have allowed them to determine if any sort of poisoning or cancer were to blame and could find no such thing. Unless we're to the level of purporting that GMO's kill people by magic, that's rather sufficient.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Do you have evidence harm was found?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469179459003&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:15am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469179459003][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Wrong Chad. Bad analogy. Please stay on topic.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469182792336&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:15am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] ^^wrong in what way?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469216125666&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:16am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469216125666][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Please provide evidence.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469219458999&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:16am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469219458999][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] The analogy is accurate

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469252792329&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:16am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469252792329][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Not Thomas Borreson, if they can't find the reason for the death at all.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469262792328&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:16am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Please provide evidence.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469269458994&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:16am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] You are cannot accurately compare physiological and biochemical data from an already dead rat to living rats who have undergone 8 days additional treatment.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469289458992&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:16am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469289458992][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/megan.windsor.3?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/megan.windsor.3?fref=ufi][Megan Windsor]] No. It is unscientific to conclude that a death of unknown causes is evidence of harm by the thing being tested.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469319458989&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:16am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469319458989][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] The teenager and you are not in a study testing GMO food, Chad Niederhuth.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469422792312&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:17am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] This is an evidence based forum, not a conjecture based forum.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469429458978&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:17am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469429458978][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] No Ray Lutz, that is not the hypothesis, and as someone who's studied science, this should be apparent. What we can do with science is absolutely disprove the null hypothesis that not giving compound X results in no harmful side effects. That wasn't done, and again, you would not put the rat in if you're testing that compound X doesn't cause harm, when it can't be explained how the rat died, and that compound X wasn't the reason.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469432792311&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:18am]] · Edited · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469432792311][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] I find it funny that you are addressing everyone else's comments but mine, and I'll take that as evidence in itself.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469552792299&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:17am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469552792299][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, analogies do not have to be identical. That is the point of an analogy is that they are not identical.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469642792290&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:17am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469642792290][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Matthew Fastiggi, I wouldn't take it personal. He is quite selective on which posts or points he responds to.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469802792274&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:19am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469802792274][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Matthew Fastiggi, to be frank I don't understand your argument either. The point of these studies are to find effects. Its like you are saying that compound X can't be the reason because you are assuming no harm to begin with.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469916125596&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:19am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Lay off any personal criticism of Ray or any other member.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573469992792255&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:20am]] · Edited · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573469992792255][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/jheeeeeezy4?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/jheeeeeezy4?fref=ufi][Jimmy Healy]] 1 in 40 is not 10%...

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573470056125582&offset=250&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:20am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573470056125582][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> if they can't find the reason for the death at all.

In a necropsy procedure designed to detect degeneration, necrosis, and cancer of tissues... yeah. A necropsy designed to detect these things makes sense for this sort of study, but isn't necessarily going to be able to tell you if a rat suffered cardiac arrest or stroke. unsure emoticon

Edit: but these procedures are sufficient to rule out poisoning. Ditto the fact that this is literally a single rat.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573470076125580&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:23am]] · Edited · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573470076125580][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] It wasn't personal. It is supported by evidence. But I digress.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573470092792245&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:20am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] We see in the quote I presented that it is considered unsound scientific practice to exclude the data point UNLESS you know what the death was caused by and it is not what you are testing. The broken nose falls into that category. This is a death that is not explained, and can't be explained away by saying that it does not fit the model of GMO poisoning, because the activation for that is unknown, and it IS possible that an inspection of the dead rat may not provide that information.

In my opinion, to comply with sound scientific practices, that rat should not have been blown off as nothing. The result is we have a potential 10% fatality rate, which is partially confirmed by Seralini.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573470169458904&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:20am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] OECD gives guidelines on this sort of study and what it is capable of. An LD50 for a compound can only be determined if there are deaths in at least two different concentrations of the treatment:

"In principle, the method is not intended to allow the calculation of a precise LD50, but does allow for the determination of defined exposure ranges where lethality is expected since death of a proportion of the animals is still the major endpoint of this test. The method allows for the determination of an LD50 value only when at least two doses result in mortality higher than 0% and lower than 100%. The use of a selection of pre-defined doses, regardless of test substance, with classification explicitly tied to number of animals observed in different states improves the opportunity for laboratory to laboratory reporting consistency and repeatability. "

http://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/.../feddocs/oecd/oecd_gl423.pdf

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573470566125531&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:23am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573470566125531][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, I ask you again, how do you compare physiological or biochemical data from a rat that has not undergone a full treatment to rats that have, that died prior to sampling of the data, compared to rats that are still living?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573470692792185&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:24am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573470692792185][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] Chad Niederhuth - in a scientific study, you don't prove that something occurs, you disprove the null. I'm saying that, in this case, the Hammond study uses the null hypothesis that YieldGard Rootworm corn does not cause damage, and when disproving this, you can not use unknown reasons of damage as evidence for the disproval. Hence, the rat that died from unknown reasons is not evidence to disprove the null that YieldGard does not cause damage.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573470756125512&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:25am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573470756125512][3]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] The best you can do in the case of a death is to calculate an LD50. However, the acute toxicity study design is not meant to do this accurately and can only be done when there are deaths in both treatment groups.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573470926125495&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:26am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573470926125495][2]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/stephen.kelly.18?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/stephen.kelly.18?fref=ufi][Stephen Kelly]] " We do not know the underlying model of GMO poisoning, and thus we cannot exclude the data point. It is unsound scientific practice to do so. "

I can't help but wonder what Ray's background with scientific practices is. Removing an outlier like this seems like a sound practice.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573471256125462&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:28am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573471256125462][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Matthew Fastiggi, but we are talking about a "single" rat that died. While necroscopy may not give any reason for the death, that is not evidence that the treatment was not responsible. That conclusion requires multiple replication. Especially when the results are unknown and that the entire purpose of this test is to determine the health effects. I don't think you can rule out the GMOs having an effect for a single example. To do so presumes to know the result already.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573471519458769&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:30am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] Ray Lutz - per YOUR definition source of an outlier, "An outlier may be due to variability in the measurement or it may indicate experimental error; the latter are sometimes excluded from the data set." So are we now saying it is OK to include variables in an experiment that are potentially caused by experimental error?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573471549458766&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:30am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] It doesn't matter what Ray's background is.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573472126125375&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:31am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] Chad Niederhuth - Correct, it is not evident that the treatment was not responsible. It's not evident that it was responsible either. Therefore, its taken out. I'm not ruling out that GMOs don't have an effect from a singular....I'm pointing out where Ray's reasoning is flawed

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573472142792040&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:33am]] · Edited · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573472142792040][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> We see in the quote I presented that it is considered unsound scientific practice to exclude the data point UNLESS you know what the death was caused by and it is not what you are testing

It would be more unsound to try to derive significance from this single data point when the rat in question showed no evidence of toxic or carcinogenic response.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573472172792037&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:32am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573472172792037][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] I disagree with your reason for excluding it Matthew Fastiggi. Data should not be excluded because you don't know the reason. That is why you are doing the study in the first place.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573472249458696&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:33am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Yes, Matthew Fastiggi, I agree that if you know that the outlier was due to inaccurate equipment, for example, that you should exclude the measurement from the dataset. But you have to clearly know what caused the error, it cannot be done willy nilly just because you don't like the data.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573472289458692&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:35am]] · Edited · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Chad Niederhuth -- I agree with this: "Data should not be excluded because you don't know the reason. That is why you are doing the study in the first place."

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573472429458678&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:34am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Thomas Borreson, I think that presumes to know exactly how potential toxicity from GMOs would work. I'd rather avoid any such assumptions.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573472436125344&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:34am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] In any case, their analysis (edit for clarity: necropsy) procedures are sufficient to determine that whatever the cause of death was, it was outside the range of conditions that they were actually testing for.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573472439458677&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:34am]] · Edited · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573472439458677][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> it cannot be done willy nilly just because you don't like the data.

Which wasn't done in this case.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573472769458644&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:35am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573472769458644][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, that would be accurate if the data from a dead 82-day rat that has been dead for X amount of time was equivalent and not complicated by the fact that its been dead for X amount of time and having 8 days less treatment.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573472882791966&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:35am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573472882791966][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] However, with an additional 8 days of treatment, and the physiological and biochemical changes that occurs on death does make any such comparison meaningless.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573473122791942&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:36am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573473122791942][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Many biochemical changes occur after death. The mere fact that the rat died and had been dead for X amount of time would make the biochemical tests done automatically different than those of the other rats sampled while alive or immediately on death. This makes it impossible to determine if any biochemical difference observed was due to the treatment or simply having been dead. As a result, any data from such a comparison is meaningless and is justifiably excluded.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article...

Biochemistry Changes That Occur after Death: Potential Markers for...

JOURNALS.PLOS.ORG

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573473922791862&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:39am]] · Edited · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573473922791862][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] The data (rat) didn't disprove the null or vice versa based upon the parameters. It wasn't thrown out willy nilly. Do I think that replication should occur? Definitely. And how do we know that there wasn't experimental error? How do we know that the rat in question didn't have some underlying physiological condition that the other rats didn't (going back to the fact that you can't have all identical test subjects - at least to some extent if/when stem cell research allows for it). Because of all of these uncertainties, you can not include the rat in disproving the null.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573474486125139&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:41am]] · Edited · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573474486125139][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Chad Niederhuth, I see no reason to quibble about when in the study the rat died. Of course it is going to be toward the end in a study like this where you can't boost the dosage over what a rat can eat. As it is, it is acknowledged in the lit. (FDA) that such feeding studies are not very sensitive. So any data point is pretty hard to come by and will likely happen at the end of the period. The fact that the rat laid in his cage for days only is testament to the sparse inspections.

But I can only imagine what this study team went through. "Holy shit, one of the treatment rats died." -- "Okay, not sure what to do, just leave it in the cage for a while, so we can say we don't know when it died." -- "should we report it" -- "Hell no, that would give us a 10% fatality rate and we'd never get it published. Let's just ignore it." -- "I'll give it to Joey down the hall to look at the tissues, he never finds anything" -- "good idea..."

All that is just a guess, I have no evidence other than the fact that Hammond spent an unusually large amount of his article saying how harmonious his study was with all others... That in itself is an additional red flag.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573474762791778&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:42am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Here is what the FDA says about testing (yes, this is the entirety of what they say):

G. Toxicology

Feeding studies or other toxicological tests may be warranted
when the characteristics of the plant or the nature of the modification
raise safety concerns that cannot be resolved by analytical
methods. FDA recognizes that feeding studies on whole foods
have limited sensitivity because of the inability to administer
exaggerated doses. Because of the difficulty of designing meaningful
studies, FDA encourages companies to consult informally with
the agency about test protocols.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573475012791753&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:44am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] ^There is every reason to quibble about when the rat died. Death incurs changes in both biochemistry and physiology. See the previously cited paper. These changes make any attempt to determine the cause of those differences, treatment or death impossible.

Beyond that, the account of how the researcher reacted is unfounded and shear speculation.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573475172791737&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:44am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573475172791737][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, I've been stating that feeding studies have limited usage for a while now. I've cited this paper to you multiple times now:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3833814/

The use of whole food animal studies in the safety assessment of genetically modified crops:...

There is disagreement internationally across major regulatory jurisdictions on the relevance and utility of whole food (WF) toxicity studies on GM crops, with no harmonization of data or regulatory requirements. The scientific value, and therefore animal ...

NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573475522791702&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:45am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Chad Niederhuth, I see no reason to quibble about when in the study the rat died.

He just presented you with one. unsure emoticon

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573475642791690&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:46am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Thomas Borreson, Said
>> it cannot be done willy nilly just because you don't like the data.

Which wasn't done in this case.

UNQUOTE:
I disagree since the model for GMO poisoning is unknown, the fact that they did not find it does not mean it does not exist.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573475712791683&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:46am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> But I can only imagine what this study team went through. "Holy shit, one of the treatment rats died." -- "Okay, not sure what to do, just leave it in the cage for a while, so we can say we don't know when it died." -- "should we report it" -- "Hell no, that would give us a 10% fatality rate and we'd never get it published. Let's just ignore it." -- "I'll give it to Joey down the hall to look at the tissues, he never finds anything" -- "good idea..."

This isn't a fanfic forum.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573475819458339&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:47am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573475819458339][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> I disagree since the model for GMO poisoning is unknown, the fact that they did not find it does not mean it does not exist.

Given that there is no evidence that GMO poisoning is actually a thing, you are technically correct. Ditto, the model for flibbertygibbets (a condition which I have posited based upon equal evidence) is unknown, therefore it cannot be ruled out that this rat died of flibbertygibbets.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573476106124977&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:49am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, sure it doesn't mean it doesn't exist....however, any suspicion of "GMO poisoning" should have possible modes of action. What are the possible modes of action for GMO poisoning? As a geneticist, it makes no sense how a protein like EPSP, which is found in every plant, could become toxic with slight modifications. That is not how it works.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573476492791605&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:51am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Chad Niederhuth -- First, we agree that it makes a difference how LONG AGO the rat died with respect to necropsy, but not so much when the rat died in the experiment, and there is an expectation that if there are deaths due to GMO poisoning, then they will likely occur toward the end.

The fact that the rat was not noticed for days, well that is extremely poor practice, and the fact that then they would have a hard time finding the activation for GMO poisoning only goes to underline their unfortunate bias.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573476536124934&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:51am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Nobody said that the rat was not noticed for days Ray Lutz. That would be inaccurate.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573476582791596&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:52am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] They still don't understand many illnesses. That does not mean they don't exist. Gravity exists, and we hardly understand it at all.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573476602791594&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:52am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/megan.windsor.3?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/megan.windsor.3?fref=ufi][Megan Windsor]] These threads that end up with everyone just talking in circles are so unhelpful for people observing from the outside trying to learn something.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573476776124910&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:54am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573476776124910][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] When you do animal feeding studies, which I have done, you check on the animals everyday and feed them. However, you do not spend 24 hours a day in that room and if you check on a rat at 6pm and death occurred at 6:15pm, then you would not know until the following morning and you would not know exactly when that rat died.

In the 12 hours between the death and finding that death, numerous biochemical and physiological changes would have occurred. Again, see the previously cited paper. This invalidates data for these tests.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573476862791568&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:54am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/megan.windsor.3?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/megan.windsor.3?fref=ufi][Megan Windsor]] But to me Chad has been making some pretty good points.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573476979458223&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:55am]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573476979458223][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Gravity exists, and we hardly understand it at all.

Gravity is measurable. GMO poisoning is at the stage of being an arbitrary assertion. unsure emoticon

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573477019458219&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:56am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/stephen.kelly.18?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/stephen.kelly.18?fref=ufi][Stephen Kelly]] ".. there is an expectation that if there are deaths due to GMO poisoning, then they will likely occur toward the end. "

Was this established in an article posted on here?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573477086124879&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:56am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] I agree you may not be able to determine the mechanism for GMO poisoning in this study, Chad Niederhuth. But to exclude the data of the death as a whole is quite a step that I find not in compliance with good scientific practice, and there is an additional red flag in that it is also what the researcher expected. The dead rat was unexpected. Information is defined as the inverse of expectation. Something that is unexpected has a lot more information that all of the expected part of the study, and to throw it out also eliminates a lot of information.

So from an information theory standpoint, it was a huge step to take and thus requires a lot more explanation than provided. GMO Poisoning may be a problem.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573477392791515&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 11:59am]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Gravity is not measurable. We can only measure its affects on objects -- there is no direct measurement of the gravity field.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573477816124806&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:00pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] "They still don't understand many illnesses. That does not mean they don't exist. Gravity exists, and we hardly understand it at all." Doesn't mean that GMO cause the rat to die. Doesn't mean that water caused the rat to die. Who knows why the rat died, but what the authors felt was that the rat did not die due to the variables THEY presented, to disprove the null, therefore, it was thrown out

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573477889458132&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:01pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Stephen Kelly, please see this FDA quote:

G. Toxicology

Feeding studies or other toxicological tests may be warranted
when the characteristics of the plant or the nature of the modification
raise safety concerns that cannot be resolved by analytical
methods. FDA recognizes that feeding studies on whole foods
have limited sensitivity because of the inability to administer
exaggerated doses. Because of the difficulty of designing meaningful
studies, FDA encourages companies to consult informally with
the agency about test protocols.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573477929458128&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:01pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] I think that at this point, we're basically being asked to operate under the assumption that "GMO Poisoning" exists, and to fit all available data into a conspiracy theory type narrative to support this claim. unsure emoticon

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573478199458101&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:03pm]] · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573478199458101][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Matthew Fastiggi, it does not mean that the GMO feed did not cause the rat to die. To be reasonable, you have to show that the feed could not have been the cause of the death. Since the current model does not understand the activation of GMO poisoning, the fact that they did not find it does not mean it does not exist.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573478209458100&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:03pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] So then Ray Lutz - I guess my question is, why SHOULD the rat have been left in, if there's no underlying reason of why it died. And they did show that GMO feed "likely" did not cause it to die from the other 398 test subjects. And the fact that they did not find it also does not mean that it DOES exist.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573478362791418&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:05pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, tell me how you would include it? 90-day acute toxicity studies are primarily based on biochemical and physiological results. We have already established that this death does not allow for comparison of this data to the rest of the study.

Beyond that, the best that can be done is to assess a rough LD50, however, if you see the previously referenced OECD document, an LD50 can only be done if there are deaths in two treatment groups. Not a single isolated death.

So this begs the question of what sort of valid comparison can be done with this isolated death? All that is left that can be done is a necroscopy to see if there are any signs of toxicity. That was done as reported and no signs were found. In the absence of all this data, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that the death was most likely a random death and then continue the study using the rest of the rats.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573478636124724&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:06pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Yes, Thomas Borreson, you must assume the hypothetical that GMO Poisoning might be the case. This is not a conspiracy theory, it is a scientific hypothesis that is made implicitly by these studies.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573478692791385&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:07pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> To be reasonable, you have to show that the feed could not have been the cause of the death. Since the current model does not understand the activation of GMO poisoning

We can preclude "GMO poisoning" because microscopic examination of tissues after necropsy did not detect anything pointing to toxins at all.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573478772791377&offset=200&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:08pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] You understand that "poison" isn't magic, right?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573478879458033&offset=150&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:08pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Matthew Fastiggi, there were only 40 subjects in the study with 33% GMO, so there were only 39 other test subjects that stated that the food was safe..

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573478902791364&offset=150&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:09pm]] · Edited · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, you cannot assume a model that does not exist and that does not have supporting data. This "GMO poisoning" is a made up term. There is no hypothetical mechanism and in the end all you can say is does the data support such a possibility. The data does not. The dead rat did not show signs of toxicity, nor do the other rats. This argues against "GMO poisoning".

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573478949458026&offset=150&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:09pm]] · Edited · Like · [[https://www.facebook.com/browse/likes?id=573478949458026][1]]
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] Just going off of what is said....

GMO poisoning "might" be the case, but there's statistical significance that is is not the case. It "might" have been a random carcinogen that caused it. It might have been an underlying heart murmur that caused it. We don't know.

And there were 400 rats in the study Ray - 1 in the 33% range of out of a group of 10, yes. So then, are you acceptance of the 22% and 11%? If would assume so.

Ok then, going off of that, are we saying there "might" be a threshold to intaking "GMO compounds" - ok. Same goes for ANY other chemical ingested. Toxicity is in the dosage.

So finally, can we say that GMO's are only bad if ingested in large quantities?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573479712791283&offset=150&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:12pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/eric.bjerregaard?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/eric.bjerregaard?fref=ufi][Eric Bjerregaard]] Mathew Fastiggi, I fell and broke my wrist and tail bone. Both in 2 places. I am beginning to understand gravity. While I understand the point you made. Sometimes I think that point is used a bit too often. Perhaps also in the case of g.e. food safety. The trillion meal study comes to mind here.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573479722791282&offset=150&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:12pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] But given the brevity of the study, and the fact that the death occurred toward the end, the responsible thing to do would be to acknowledge the death as a significant aspect of the study, and call for a longer term study to be conducted so as to winnow out the possibility that this was not a fluke. If a longer study was then conducted with similar treatment groups (and more animals, like 50-65 per group) and 54 weeks instead of 13, then that would probably help to confirm that GMO poisoning is not a theat.

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573479729457948&offset=150&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:12pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] So heres the question. If one rat out of 40 dies in a single treatment group, does this result in a statistically significant difference?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573479756124612&offset=150&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:13pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, on what scientific basis do you make this assertion?

[[https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/?comment_id=573479869457934&offset=150&total_comments=333&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D][Yesterday at 12:13pm]] · Like
[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] Eric Bjerregaard - I never mentioned gravity other than in the quote Ray provided...

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Since there were no deaths in 90% of the treatment groups an only in this one group, there is a 90% chance that it is important. And, realize that the death represents a very important data point because it means that the going theory about GMO safety is wrong.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] Isn't it anticipated that the occasional study animal may die unexpectedly? Wouldn't that be an acceptable reason to dismiss it from the study?

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC106832/

Natural Pathogens of Laboratory Mice, Rats, and Rabbits and Their Effects on...

NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] You understand, Ray, that a death by poisoning, even a novel poison is going to leave physical evidence, right Ray? As in observable damage to organs and tissues?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] It would represent a 2.5% fatality rate.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> It would represent a 2.5% fatality rate.

It would simultaneously represent 1 death out of a group of 400 rats over a period of 82 days, which isn't really an unreasonable possibility.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mfastiggi?fref=ufi][Matthew Fastiggi]] I know you're bombarded Ray, and its always great to reflect and participate in discussions like this, and thank you. If you wouldn't mind chiming in on the comment I made 5 mins ago

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] ^Thats not how statistics is done Ray Lutz.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] You can't just point at this one death and say that it is at all caused by GMOs because it represents 2.5%. It could also be due to random chance. Any such claim requires proper statistics to be done.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/eric.bjerregaard?fref=ufi][Eric Bjerregaard]] Mathew, I understood that.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Paging David Brown...any idea what a proper statistical test to do on morbidity is? We could do this right now.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Chad, if it were random chance, then there is only a 10% chance that it would randomly occur in this one group. So 90% of the time, the death should have occurred in the other groups but did not, and this is not a random occurrence.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Chad, if it were random chance, then there is only a 10% chance that it would randomly occur in this one group.

And?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] You are not doing proper statistical analysis, you are throwing around percentages that mean nothing.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, there is a 10% chance that it would occur in any particular group. If a random death is going to occur in another group, you could argue that it was that treatment that caused the effect. Thats why we do not simply throw percentages around in statistics.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Well we do know that a purely random death would have equal chance in all groups. Thus, chance that it occurs -- at random -- in a group of 40 out of 400 is exactly 10%.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Well we do know that a purely random death would have equal chance in all groups. Thus, chance that it occurs -- at random -- in a group of 40 out of 400 is exactly 10%.

AND????

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] ^And if you were to pick another specific group, that chance is also 10%. This is why we have statistical methods to determine whether or not that chance is meaningful or not. You are not doing any statistical analysis, you are merely claiming that because it occurred in the 33% group, that it must be due to GMOs without having performed any statistical analysis.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Also, there is only one control group.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Until an actual statistical analysis is done, any citation of percentages is meaningless and is simply making assumptions about the significance.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] As pointed out by the OECD (source in previous posts), an LD50 cannot even be measured from the study unless a death occurs in more than one treatment group.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] And, the probability that at a single random death would occur in the other 9 groups is exactly 90%. For 95% signif. we need to be 95% sure that it is a random occurence. Unfortunately, we are 90% concerned that it might not be random. This is from statistical standpoint only.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] No, there were 8 control groups and only 2 treatment groups, Chad Niederhuth

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Unfortunately, we are 90% concerned that it might not be random. This is from statistical standpoint only.

No. That really isn't. (Edit for clarification: that is nothing like how determining that something is unlikely random in statistics works.) unsure emoticon

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance

Statistical significance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In statistics, statistical significance (or a statistically...

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] No there is a single control group with a matching isogenic line. The other groups are references used to assess a range of normal responses to corn in the diet. However NONE of the references are used in initial statistical analysis of the treatment groups, only the control group is. Read the study Ray.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] You wouldn't even apply a Stat test if there was no evidence of a treatment effect. You analyze an experiment according to the design.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] I've been supervising a 1st grade play date. Has Ray Lutzpresented and research showing that Hammond et al. Mishandled the death in their experiment?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Has Ray Lutz presented and research showing that Hammond et al. Mishandled the death in their experiment?

No David Brown. He presented the following hypothesis:

>> But I can only imagine what this study team went through. "Holy shit, one of the treatment rats died." -- "Okay, not sure what to do, just leave it in the cage for a while, so we can say we don't know when it died." -- "should we report it" -- "Hell no, that would give us a 10% fatality rate and we'd never get it published. Let's just ignore it." -- "I'll give it to Joey down the hall to look at the tissues, he never finds anything" -- "good idea..."

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] I was just curious if there was a quick
test I could do using the numbers of rats living and dead to asses if that one random death was even close to being statistically significant.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Those are all control groups -- non treatment groups, Chad Niederhuth. From a random chance standpoint, you have to compare the non treatment groups as a whole with the single high-treatment group.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] random death probably follows the poisson dist.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

Poisson distribution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution (French pronunciation [pwasɔ̃]; in English usually /ˈpwɑːsɒn/), named after French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson, is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed…

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] Side note regarding the aforementioned fanfic: I would think actually finding evidence of poisoning during microscopic examinations of tissue examination would be the sort of thing which would make the paper even more publishable, not unpublishable. unsure emoticon

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] This is truly funny.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/edgeben?fref=ufi][Benjamin Edge]] As Chad said before, only the isogenic line is the control group. The other non-treatment groups are only reference groups, to be used only in determining if a significant difference between the control and treatment groups lies within normal variation for the crop.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Define a "control group" Ray. Those references are not used as controls in any of the statistical analysis.

They serve as a reference by which to judge any statistical differences, but are not themselves used to initially determine if there is statistical difference. Comparing those to the actual control and lumping them together is wrong.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> This is truly funny.

That's why it hasn't gotten tedious yet.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Well, they are groups of rats in the same study, same breed, etc. and the likelihood of a death is equal in all groups, if it is random. So from a random death standpoint, it does not matter what sort of group they are.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] I am stepping away from the discussion for a while due to other responsibilties

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] One more comment, please note:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treatment_and_control_groups
QUOTE
In some medical studies, where it may be unethical not to treat patients who present with symptoms, controls may be given a standard treatment, rather than no treatment at all.[2]

Treatment and control groups - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In the design of experiments, treatments are applied to experimental units in the treatment group(s).[1] In comparative experiments, members of the complementary group, the control group, receive either no treatment or a standard treatment.[2]

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] You can't stop feeding the rats. So they are given standard treatment. That standard treatment is varied in this case, but all the rats in the none treatment group are considered controls.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] No they are not. Only one group has a non-GMO isogenic line and it is used in the statistical analysis. Read the methods again, because the others are never used as a direct control in this same sense.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][Adam Kennedy]] A single incidence is impossible to understand in isolation and so must be treated with suspicion with regards to the experimental objectives. The most that could be said about the death in the high dose groups is that it may be due to treatment, cause of death would have to be correlated with non-lethal changes on other high dose group animals to say any more than that, if no changes were seen in the rest of the group that could be associated with the death then it could be reasonably assumed that the death was not a result of the treatment.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Hammond describes in detail the rationale for the reference lines and how they were used.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/ToyotaObsession?fref=ufi][Robert Buehler]] Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems Ray is misapplying skepticism and the scientific method in an attempt to get sole kind of "ah ha!" Moment.

I mean it's good to pick things apart and look for mistakes, that's the purpose of peer review after all. But aren't we at the point now it's just completely ridiculous?

I mean we're not even debating anything meaningful, just Ray's cognitive dissonance.

I'm curious what evidence Ray needs to convince him that the dead rat is not meaningful in any scientific way? Isn't that why we use multiple animals? So that when one dies of undetermined causes we don't make the mistake of blaming it on whatever we were testing on?

Honest question because with everything you've been presented you dismiss it out of hand because it negates your argument. That's not skepticism.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] This use of other hybrids is important because the effects of modern hybrids is relatively unknown...just assumed to be safe. However, if you compare two inbred maize lines, there can be hundreds of genes present in one variety completely absent in another.http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3963563/

For this analysis, they always compared the treatment to the isogenic line first and separately. In fact, the low-dose line was never compared to the reference controls because those did not contain the same amount of corn. The low-dose was only compared to the low-dose control. If a statistical difference between the treatment and matching control-group was found, then the treatment was compared to the reference controls to see if it fell within the range of rat responses to hybrid control.

So the reference controls are not controls in the same sense as the isogenic control groups. That is why they are not lumped together with the controls. They exist to assess a range of normal responses that had never been studied before previously.

Insights into the Maize Pan-Genome and Pan-Transcriptome

Genomes at the species level are dynamic, with genes...

NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Robert Buehler, I will not speculate about Ray as its not relevant.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/lawrence.boyd.121?fref=ufi][Bill Boyd]] Ray Lutz, you are all over the map in terms of statistics. You would use the poison distribution for the probability that a rat would die on a given day of the experiment. And it's obvious that if you use the Poisson Distribution correctly the probability of a random death is about equal to what occurred. (Do your own calculation using the formula in Wikipedia). Rats average life span is 3 years and the experiment covered a substantial portion of their lives. No information is given as to their ages (It never is) so the real way of dealing with it is a random distribution, so 2.5 percent of rats dieing in a long term study would not raise eyebrows. If no necropsy had been done tossing the data would not be acceptable but it was done. I'm sure if you were the peer reviewer you would have tossed the study, no matter what. But the peer reviewers in this instance disagree with you, and their opinion is the official one that matters. Finally, a big point of publishing this in the manner it was done is so the experiment can be duplicated and the results compared. That's the process. Rejecting publication of a valid experiment, as you so badly want to do, makes it impossible to provide a series of replicable experiments from which conclusions can be drawn. The real problem with the Saranelli (sp) experiment was its methodology. This however is valid and replicable. Because of that as the body of experiments grows, because it's biology, there is a possibility that some will not find the same results. But because of the methodology involved we can calculate the statistical probability of that as well.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] That being said, even if we include all the rats, there is still a 10% chance of it a random death occurring in the 33% group. To know whether or not a single death like that is significant or meaningful requires proper statistical analysis. You can't say that it means anything by simply throwing the probability around.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] This is what the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority...who is directly involved in assessing GMO safety) has to say on using non-isogenic references:

3.3. Estimation of equivalence limits
3.3.1. Which data can be used?
Often the information on the natural variation of levels of relevant crop constituents is rather limited (Kuiper et al., 2002). There are several ways in which data on natural variation may be available.

1. In addition to the GMO and its conventional counterpart, the trials performed include several commercial crop varieties, which must represent non-GM varieties with a proven history of safe use, and these should be fully randomised as integral parts of the experiment.

2. Data on such commercial crop varieties may be available from other experiments, databases or in the literature. In the opinion of the GMO Panel, the first of these is mandatory in principle, whereas the other options may be alternatives only for those rare cases that might be met in the future, where strong justification can be given why the first option was impossible. The first type of information is required, because the comparison between genotypes is made under strict experimental procedure designed to eliminate confounding effects (see Section 2). As additional evidence for the risk characterization phase, in which the statistical results of field trials are put into the context of biological or toxicological relevance, the possibility to use other experiments or historical data to provide alternative estimates of equivalence limits should also be considered. This possibility and checks on data quality are further discussed in Section 3.3.3.

http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/scdocs/doc/1250.pdf

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] ^Hammond et al was applying this same concept (they explicitly state it in the methods) to their rat study.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Bill Boyd said "No information is given as to their ages (It never is)" -- that is wrong. Normally rats in the studies are approximately the same age when the study starts. Please see the clip and correct yourself.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] This just keeps getting better!

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] And Bill Boyd, 90 days is not a "significant portion of their life." Rats can easily live three years, that is 36 months, so 3 months is less than 10% of their life. That would be like saying a child dying at 7 years old (10% of 72) is normal and expected. It is not normal, and it is not expected.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> That would be like saying a child dying at 7 years old (10% of 72) is normal and expected. It is not normal, and it is not expected.

Except that does happen often enough that a certain number of deaths at that age are expected, statistically speaking.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] And I disagree, Bill Boyd, that our job is to blindly accept studies at face value. In fact research shows that 90% of studies are wrong esp. in fields like this one.
http://www.theatlantic.com/.../lies-damned.../308269/...

Lies, Damned Lies, and Medical Science

Much of what medical researchers conclude in their studies is misleading, exaggerated, or flat-out wrong....

THEATLANTIC.COM

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> And I disagree, Bill Boyd, that our job is to blindly accept studies at face value.

Please don't employ straw men.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] But normally if a child dies at 7, there is a reason for it, Thomas Borreson. If any child dies for no reason, medical science is very interested in knowing why.

There was a case of such unknown illness and death surrounding lead poisoning. Had they just ignored spurious deaths, they would likely not found some cases of lead poisoning.

If we have the rats in a study, being fed corn that we think might be toxic (because that is why the study is run) and one dies in the study group, and no one knows why, then it really should take a lot of doing to ignore the dead rat.

Now, with the exceptional bias in the field, they decide to ignore it. Consider if this was testing for lead in food and there was a death. I guarantee they would not exclude it.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/lawrence.boyd.121?fref=ufi][Bill Boyd]] Wow Ray, who said accept them. You aren't even being a critical thinker or reviewer of the paper, a prosecutor maybe. It's a peer reviewed paper, one of hopefully many to come. The most important feature of that paper is a replicable experiment whose results can be compared to this one. Blindly accepting studies means everyone says this is it, no need to replicate, really that's what I said? Reread my post. I could go into a variety of other misinterpretations you've had of the statistics. But you have totally missed the most fundamental one, that is this an experiment than can be reproduced with a fair chance that someone will not find the same results. That's the whole point of publishing it..

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> But normally if a child dies at 7, there is a reason for it, Thomas Borreson. If any child dies for now reason, medical science is very interested in knowing why.

Yes. That's because children tend to belong to human families, who tend to derive emotional satisfaction from being able to find a cause. A child is not a rat in a study, and is typically not living its life to test for a specific effect.

>> If we have the rats in a study, being fed corn that we think might be toxic (because that is why the study is run) and one dies in the study group, and no one knows why, then it really should take a lot of doing to ignore the dead rat.

Like when the necropsy finds nothing to implicate any toxic effect.

>> Now, with the exceptional bias in the field, they decide to ignore it.

What is your evidence that they chose to ignore it due to bias and not merely because they didn't have any reason to think that the death was due to toxic effects after having performed a necropsy and examining tissue samples microscopically?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] Also, your understanding of the history of the discovery of lead poisoning is deeply flawed. unsure emoticon

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] According to EFSA guidelines, outliers that are not transcription errors are not to be removed before the data is analyzed. This is the evidenceDavid Brown was asking for. They should have included the "outlier" in their analysis.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] That was already addressed by Chad and others. It has graduated to PRATT stage.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Please past in the link to when it was "already addressed" by Chad. (copy link under timestamp).

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[[https://www.facebook.com/ivan.boban?fref=ufi][Ivan Boban]] I had no idea that rats died all at the same time, and if one dies away from the pack, it must be poison. Thanks Ray!

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Ivan Boban, no one said all rats die at the same time. But it is so rare that it is not even mentioned in standard 90-day study plans. If it were very common, it should be mentioned in the standard plans and a method for handling it provided. It is very rare.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/ivan.boban?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/ivan.boban?fref=ufi][Ivan Boban]] And things that happen very rarely don't happen. Which is why the rat must have been poisoned. Gotcha!

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[[https://www.facebook.com/ivan.boban?fref=ufi][Ivan Boban]] You know what's more surprising, and even more rare... the other rats who were poisoned didn't die! Why didn't the researchers answer that question huh? Because big pharma have a cure for GMO poison and instead of giving it to people... they are giving it to rats! Bastards...

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] A dead rat is not an outlier. It is missing data. An outlier is a measurement value that lies significantly outside the range of normal variation.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] I'm going to ignore your ranting, Ivan Boban. The fact is that the dead rat was improperly removed from the study, in direct violation of the recommended study design by EFSA.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] It is not "missing data" either David Brown. Please provide evidence that a dead rat is "missing data." Honestly, this is the most absurd thing I've heard in years.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] Definition of a statistical outlier.

http://www.itl.nist.gov/.../handbook/prc/section1/prc16.htm

7.1.6. What are outliers in the data?

30, 171, 184, 201, 212, 250, 265, 270, 272, 289, 305, 306, 322, 322, 336, 346, 351, 370, 390, 404, 409, 411,...

ITL.NIST.GOV

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> It is not "missing data" either David Brown. Please provide evidence that a dead rat is "missing data."

So, after the rat died they were supposed to keep weighing it and performing serum tests on it? confused_rev emoticon

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> The fact is that the dead rat was improperly removed from the study, in direct violation of the recommended study design by EFSA.

Neither the quotation that you have provided, nor the study itself suggest that this "fact" actually occurred. unsure emoticon

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] How is a rat supposed to stay in a feeding trial when it's DEAD?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] I would be willing to accept the notion, David Brown, that is should be remove and treated as missing data IF there was a model of GMO poisoning where they could identify that the dead rat did not exhibit any of those traits. But without any model of the activation of GMO poisoning, you can't willy nilly throw it out. It just may be the most important data point of the entire experiment.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] "Missing Data Due to Death The treatment of death in the context of missing data is complicated. There are three kinds of approaches, which are linked to situations. One approach is to consider cause-specific death as a primary endpoint (e.g., death related to cardiovascular event). In this case, death for other reasons (e.g., not related to the clinical study) may properly be treated as a censoring event. For example, death due to an auto accident could be considered to be a censoring event." (pg. 11)

http://www.nap.edu/.../the-prevention-and-treatment-of...

The Prevention and Treatment of Missing Data in Clinical Trials

Randomized clinical trials are the primary tool for...

NAP.EDU

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] So a death is not an outlier it is missing data. There is a very large literature on ways of handing missing data, but unfortunately no standard techniques at this time. Some recommend imputing measurements that were never made due to the death (there are many ways of doing this) others recommend ignoring.

The key is to determine whether there is any reason to believe the death is due to the treatment which was why a necropsy was performed for the dead rat in the Hammond study.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] I agree that it is missing data IF it is legitimate to remove it.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] No, it is missing data. Period. Then the question is how to handing this missing data.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] An outlier is a measurement. There is no "death" measure and certainly no way to measure an "extreme" death.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] A fatality may be the logical result of a toxicology study. It is data.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] For one of the subjects, there is missing data after the point of death. Do you throw out all of the data for that subject, do you impute data after the death so as not to lose the earlier data, etc...

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] Ray Lutz. Did you read the explanation of a statistical outlier? Are you willing to acknowledge that a death can't be considered a statistical outlier?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] And yes, FWIW, there is information in missing data. That is why the NRC conducted a major assessment solely to review how best to handle missing data.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] I agree that if you can explain the death (such as the case of the euthanized rat due to the broken jaw) that it is missing data and not an outlier.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] Ray Lutz, Please explain how a death can be a statistical outlier. Precisely what measurement is extreme in this case?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] It is not missing data if the death is cannot be explained as not a possible outcome of the toxin.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] The data of the fatality is duly reported.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] Ray Lutz. Why don't you slow down enough to read what I posted. You are too busy arguing to learn. Read the NRC report on missing data. It addresses subject death as one reason for missing data. And then it discusses what to do in that situation.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] The report specifically addresses the possibility that the data may be missing due to a treatment effect vs. a random effect.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][Adam Kennedy]] This is a toxicology study, presuming that the substance is a toxin is prejudicial

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] I am not arguing that it is a statistical outlier. Outliers are due to transcription errors, meaurement errors, calibration errors, and in those cases, an argument can be made that they should be removed from consideration. Then, they become missing data.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] All of those things you mentioned Ray Lutz lead to extreme measurements. You can't just define outlier to mean whatever you want it to mean.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][Adam Kennedy]] That is not what an outlier is, it is a measurement that is not representative of the normal distribution

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] And you clearly haven't taken the time to read the NRC report I posted. And entire report focused on missing data in trials!!!

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] So, I have to eat crow for a moment here. My initial read of the study was a bit cursory, and I've been debating this whole thing from the perspective of wether an outlier can be excluded.

I've had time to give a more thorough reading of it, and I realise that I was mistaken in even accepting Ray's premise that an outlier had been excluded. The more I read this study, the more it appears that the "problem" that Ray might not actually be real.

I think I owe the rest of the group an apology for wasting bandwidth on an inadvertent diversion stemming from taking Ray's word for it that this had actually occurred. unsure emoticon

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] There are standard scientific terms. Outlier means one thing. Missing data means something else. And those meanings don't have to correspond to what a layperson thinks such words should mean.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] David Brown, in your reference:

"Outliers should be investigated carefully. Often they contain valuable information about the process under investigation or the data gathering and recording process. Before considering the possible elimination of these points from the data, one should try to understand why they appeared and whether it is likely similar values will continue to appear. Of course, outliers are often bad data points."

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] Yes, Ray Lutz. And a death is not an outlier. It is missing data.

What you quoted is very good advice. You might have an unusually high measure of blood pressure but that data shouldn't be thrown out just because it is unusually high. First the researcher needs to investigate and find evidence of a transcription error, instrument calibration error, etc... An extreme value isn't necessarily an outlier.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][Arthur Doucette]] Note, the rats were 42 days old when the test started, so the rat was 124 days old when it died, not 90 days, as Ray calculated above, and this study suggests that the mean life expectancy for S-D rats (the ones used in this study is but 760 days, or 2 years, not 3 as Ray suggested above).http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/16/3/194

Tumor Incidence in Normal Sprague-Dawley Female Rats

A tumor incidence of 57 per cent was observed in 150...

CANCERRES.AACRJOURNALS.ORG

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Good, we agree, David Brown

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] And none of this has to do with missing data. That is a different issue. Honestly Ray, I've spend years teaching grad students how to deal with potential outliers. Many want to remove all data that is two standard deviations away, and that isn't wise.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] I'm trying to figure out why the absence of a plausible hypothesis for "gmo poisoning" means that it has to be considered that there might be "gmo poisoning" as a possibility in the rat's death.
It seems counterintuitive to me to consider a mechanism that doesn't exist.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] That is helpful information, Arthur Doucette. Most importantly,

The mean life span of normal female Sprague-Dawley rats in this laboratory was 760 ± 21 days, with individuals ranging in life span from 193 to 1100 days.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Notice that by your calculations, Arthur Doucette, the Hammond rat died at 124 days I will accept that. Notice that in the study of those rats, the EARLIEST time of death was 193 days. That is 59 days after the HAMMOND rat died.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][Arthur Doucette]] That was a study of just 150 rats, add 250 more rats to the study and you would likely get one dying even earlier,

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Notice that by your calculations, Arthur Doucette, the Hammond rat died at 124 days I will accept that. Notice that in the study of those rats, the EARLIEST time of death was 193 days. That is 59 days after the HAMMOND rat died.

Okay Ray. We're back to the point where someone needs to take you aside and say, "So what?"

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[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][Adam Kennedy]] So the death is an outlier in the normal distribution of death in this model

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] "an extreme value is not an outlier" so I disagree that the death is an "outlier".. It seems to me to be very important. In the study of the same type of rat, the earliest any rat died was 59 days after the Hammond rat died. This means that this death cannot be just ignored. It may be an indication that GMO poisoning is a real problem.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] The death wasn't ignored, Ray. unsure emoticon

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] What is "gmo poisoning" ?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] That whole premise which has been so instrumental in this whole goat rope was flawed. Please stop using it.

Edit for clarification: that the rat's death was "ignored".

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] The study provided by Arthur Doucette provides the typical cause of death in this type of rat:

Since these were not noted in the HAMMOND rat death, it is much different than the usual mechanisms, and again points to the possibility that this test detected GMO poisoning.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] Soooo, your premise is that 82 days of poisoning produced a rat with appeared to be in good health up until right before its death and yielded no anomalies upon necropsy?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> and again points to the possibility that this test detected GMO poisoning.

To the same degree to which it points to literally any possible cause of death, real or imagined.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] The rat death was removed from analysis, and in that way it was ignored.

To Thomas Borreson, that is correct, the mode of death was indistinguishable from a rat with GMO poisoning, given the model of GMO poisoning which we have now, which has not been developed.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] That's a pretty weak argument without evidence elsewhere that suggests such a thing exists. One could equally offer that the rat committed suicide to throw off the data.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> The rat death was removed from analysis, and in that way it was ignored.

This doesn't actually seem to be the case.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] The next step will be to develop more detailed statistics in this case without removing the dead rat from consideration.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] You're still using that false premise, Ray.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Here is where they decide to ignore the death as significant:

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] That says that they couldn't find any evidence that the death was related to the test article, Ray. If they couldn't find any such evidence, why should they treat it as significant?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] But your saying that they should consider thIs fictitious idea of "gmo poisoning".?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][Adam Kennedy]] No, even if the concept that toxicity were a possibility were accepted, the next step would be to produce a viable hypothesis of the basis of toxicity through analysis of changes in clinical pathology between treatment and control groups, of which there are none

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] I am wondering about that statement by Hammond, Thomas Borreson. How do you determine if the death was "test article related"?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> To Thomas Borreson, that is correct, the mode of death was indistinguishable from a rat with GMO poisoning, given the model of GMO poisoning which we have now, which has not been developed.

So you are claiming that your hypothetical "GMO poisoning" produces no signs which would have been evident in tissue necropsy and would leave the rat apparently healthy up until the time of its death for 82 days?

Edit: And produced no apparent ill effects in the other rats of the group?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> I am wondering about that statement by Hammond, Thomas Borreson. How do you determine if the death was "test article related"?

They necropsied it and examined its tissues microscopically.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] So if it was GMO poisoning, what does it look like? Maybe exactly what they saw. Some causes of death will not be observable in microscopic observations. Let me just consider a hypothetical. Let's say that the DNA manipulation made animals who eat it suffer from sudden inactivity of DNA replication. That is something that may not be visible to microscopic analysis.

So without a model for how GMO may disrupt the living organism, we really can't rule out the possibility that the death on day 82, 59 days before the earliest death in the study of the same type of rat, is due to GMO poisoning which is expressed in the organism in a manner that is not yet understood.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/edgeben?fref=ufi][Benjamin Edge]] Ray Lutz said: "It is not missing data if the death is cannot be explained as not a possible outcome of the toxin."

You are assuming that there is a toxin. Roundup Ready corn does not introduce a known toxin, even to insects as in Bt corn.

Also "If we have the rats in a study, being fed corn that we think might be toxic (because that is why the study is run) and one dies in the study group, and no one knows why, then it really should take a lot of doing to ignore the dead rat."

You are framing the experiment wrong, showing your bias. There is no reason to think that RR GM corn is toxic. The only reason for the study is to see IF THERE IS any adverse effect, not to show that there is or isn't an effect.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] It is getting really deep in here.....absolutely ridiculous.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] No, I don't think you can say that based on the death if a single rat and the absence of a plausible hypothesis.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][Adam Kennedy]] Lethality requires that something vital stops working, you can't posit invisible causes just because your hypothesis can't be supported by the evidence

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Let's say that the DNA manipulation made animals who eat it suffer from sudden inactivity of DNA replication. That is something that may not be visible to microscopic analysis.

Yeah it would (edit: be visible, that is). You're talking about the body losing its ability to replace dead cells. You would see widespread degeneration of the affected tissues and possibly necrosis.

For that matter, the rat wouldn't appear to be healthy right before it died, and would also be losing weight (an attribute which was measured regularly in the test rats).

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Sure, Benjamin Edge, the researchers hope they do not find any dead rats in their study because -- especially Hammond -- because then their whole model for the GMO toxin is incomplete.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] Who's model? What toxin? Evidence please.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Sure, Benjamin Edge, the researchers hope they do not find any dead rats in their study because -- especially Hammond -- because then their whole model for the GMO toxin is incomplete.

You know this how?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] It was a unicorn fart that killed the rat. Since we don't have a model for the unicorn toxin we can not rule it out.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Okay, Thomas Borreson, let's agree that the rat died. The reason for the death was not known, so they could not understand or explain that death. The notion that they can say it was not due to the GMO toxin makes no sense. The GMO toxin may work in exactly the way that rat died.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/edgeben?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/edgeben?fref=ufi][Benjamin Edge]] Projection, that's how Ray would do it.

Edit: I shouldn't ascribe motives to Ray, but what is he doing repeatedly in this discussion but assuming that Hammond and cooperators were corrupt?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] Again, what gmo toxin? Answer that please.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz?fref=ufi][Ray Lutz]] Please Benjamin Edge, stay on topic and cut out the personal remarks or third person comments. Stay on topic.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Or maybe it was a leprechaun whistle.....since we don't have an adequate model for the sonic damage caused by a leprechaun whistle it simply can not be ruled out.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Provide evidence and perhaps we may think of staying on any one of the dozen topics you have raised.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Okay, Thomas Borreson, let's agree that the rat died. The reason for the death was not known, so they could not understand or explain that death.

I agree that the rat died, and that they found no evidence to connect the rat's death to any sort of toxin or could produce a cause of death.

>> The notion that they can say it was not due to the GMO toxin makes no sense. The GMO toxin may work in exactly the way that rat died.

And that's where my agreement ends, given that a toxin which took 82 days to kill should have left evidence which would have been evident to the pathologist who studied the tissues sampled in necropsy, particularly in a toxicological study.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][Arthur Doucette]] The Hammond 2004 study was on NK603 (Roundup Ready® 2). Its been in our food system a long time, particularly for our livestock. There is no evidence of this GMO Toxin that you postulate Ray.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][Ray Lutz]] Michael Fest, they were testing GMO corn for toxicity. A rat died. They know not why. They also do not have a model for GMO toxicity. With further testing, they may eventually understand how the toxin works and how to inspect dead rats in studies to discriminate between a GMO poisoning and other mechanisms. Since that knowledge has not been developed yet, this researcher may have improperly disregard this clearly unusual and early death.

So the notion that this study clearly shows that there is no problem with GMO toxicity cannot be accepted.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Please Benjamin Edge, stay on topic and cut out the personal remarks or third person comments. Stay on topic.

In fairness to the other participants, your "topic" is a bit of a Gish Gallop. Rampaging all over hither and yonder and then lecturing others about staying on topic is hypocritical.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][Ray Lutz]] Fine, you don't have to participate Thomas Borreson, good bye!

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] Oh, I elect to stay, particularly after incorrectly giving you the benefit of the doubt earlier. smile emoticon

Edit: that said, I don't presume you will be sticking in it.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Can you provide evidence it was not a leprechaun whistle or unicorn fart? We don't have the models to account for those or sufficient testing so this possibility can not be ruled out.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] No, it doesn't work that way. The rat's death was not attributed to toxicity and there is no model for gmo toxicity because it's a fallacy. The death of thIs rat doesn't mean you can invent a cause without evidence to suggest some mechanism does exist.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][Arthur Doucette]] Ray your opinion seems to be in the minority. Both scientific and regulatory. http://www.cera-gmc.org/GmCropDatabaseEvent/NK603NK603 (the Round-Up ready trait) is fairly ubiquitous nowadays, there is no evidence, given the billions of animals that have eaten it, that there is any "GMO Toxin" that you continue to rant about.

NK603, global gm crop database regulatory approvals cera agbios

NK603, environmental risk assessment of genetically...

CERA-GMC.ORG|BY HTTP://WWW.CERA-GMC.ORG

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[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][Adam Kennedy]] So you have no model as to how GMO poisoning would occur, no evidence of negative responses in animals that were in the high dose group other than a single death, no changes in clinical pathology in any treatment group. To any reasonable person this means that the onus is on those that, for no apparent reason, believe in GMO toxicity to show a reason for that belief. At the moment we have 1 random death that happens to be in the high dose group.... pretty flimsy.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] Ray Lutz, keep your remarks on topic and refrain from personal ones. Thank you.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][Ray Lutz]] I think we have reached the end of the productive portion of this discussion. There were good contributions to the understanding of this death. I must thank Arthur Doucette for the most important input, showing that the death really was out of the ordinary for this type of rat in study conditions. I have to wonder also if the necropsy result was honestly reported. I am taking a break from this so you all can now go wild with personal remarks and character assassinations.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] We look forward to your next post.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> I think we have reached the end of the productive portion of this discussion.

Some would probably suggest that was true for the entirety of this conversation. I would disagree. I have learned a bit over the course of this from contributors such as Chad Niederhuth, and the article was of course an interesting read.

>> I have to wonder also if the necropsy result was honestly reported.

We can wonder all sorts of things. What we actually have evidence of is a different matter. Engaging in rampant conspiracist fantasy about these sorts of plots isn't really productive, though. smile emoticon

>> I am taking a break from this so you all can now go wild with personal remarks and character assassinations.

Lol. I'm going to have to savour the irony of this coming on the heels of implying that Hammond et al dishonestly reported the necropsy results of the mystery rat, not to mention prior implications and assertions that they were attempting to hide evidence of toxic effects. grin emoticon

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Thomas Borreson, I'm also thinking that conversations like these can serve as a training ground so to speak. I find myself easily prone to resorting to sarcasm and other sorts of things with people, in my opinion, who are here with a clear agenda and inability to produce evidence. I'm trying to improve on that ( please ignore my earlier unicorn and leprechaun references smile emoticon )...but find it difficult in the face of ideology....maybe with practice I'll get better.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] I liked the leprechaun and unicorn references. They illustrate very valid problems with Ray's claims about "GMO poisoning".

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] I agree. The absurdity was illustrated nicely in that analogy.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] I'm pondering at the moment, just what would be required for Ray's claim to actually be valid. One possibility would be that as Ray suggested that Hammond et al faked the necropsy results masking evidence of toxic effects. Though this begs the question of why one would report the death at all if one was willing to fabricate data and wanted to hide evidence of toxicity.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] I think that even if the cause of death had been covered up, it still flies in the face of everything we know about statistical analysis. In order for Ray's claims to have weight, we need an entirely new contrived field of statistics.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] So, even presuming shenanigans, the "GMO toxin" would have to be highly selective and only affect this one rat, and not the other rats, and not the countless other rats in countless other studies.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/adam.kennedy.9?fref=ufi][Adam Kennedy]] Classic example of attempting to prove a pre-existing opinion that, of itself, has no basis in the observed data

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[[https://www.facebook.com/ivan.boban?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/ivan.boban?fref=ufi][Ivan Boban]] Exactly Thomas. Ray hasn't touched that because he knows it sinks his ship.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/ivan.boban?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/ivan.boban?fref=ufi][Ivan Boban]] Clearly it wasn't GMO toxins. It was instead... GMO assassination! Clearly the CIA and big Pharma are in cahoots over this new way or murder. I'll start prepping the press release.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] I stand by my assertion it was unicorn farts and leprechaun whistles....do you have any evidence it wasn't? (edit: actually a unicorn farted while the leprechaun was whistling and it created GMO toxin)

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[[https://www.facebook.com/Suraky?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/Suraky?fref=ufi][Ken Lord]] Wow this is awesome. After multiple threads on multiple forums claiming the death of the rat was ignored, Nothing says "I only argue from my ideology" better than starting this thread with a screenshot that explains how the death of the rat wasn't ignored, and still claiming otherwise.

Well done Ray, I'm sure your friends are impressed at your ability to always just deny what you don't agree with.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/Suraky?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/Suraky?fref=ufi][Ken Lord]] The CredibleHulk has a good article up that shows why it is just so rediculous to be focusing so much on one rat in one study...

http://www.crediblehulk.org/.../glyphosate-toxicity.../

Glyphosate toxicity: Looking past the hyperbole, and sorting through the facts....

CREDIBLEHULK.ORG

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[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][Arthur Doucette]] Interesting that he copied much of that from one of my posts on the amount of food you would need to ingest to get to 2 mg/kg/day of glyphosate. I've since updated that particular post to reflect what I believe is the correct ADI of 1.75 mg/kg/day for glyphosate (based on a Maternal test of rats with a NOEL of 175 mg/kg/day). Here's my current post (Cred Hulk, if you read this, feel free to use it). Here are examples of the residues of Glyphosate allowed on our food:

Vegetable, bulb, group 3-07 - 0.20 ppm
Vegetable, cucurbit, group 9 0.5 ppm
Vegetable, foliage of legume, subgroup 7A, except soybean 0.2ppm
Vegetable, fruiting, group 8-10 (except okra) 0.10ppm
Vegetable, leafy, brassica, group 5 0.2ppm
Vegetable, leafy, except brassica, group 4 0.2ppm
Vegetable, leaves of root and tuber, group 2, except sugar beet tops 0.2ppm
Vegetable, legume, group 6 except soybean and dry pea 5.0ppm
Vegetables, root and tuber, group 1, except carrot, sweet potato, and sugar beet 0.20ppm

oilseeds, group 20, except canola at 40 ppm;
vegetable, root and tuber, group 1, except carrot, sweet potato, and sugar
beet at 0.20 ppm;
carrot at 5.0 ppm;
sweet potato at 3.0 ppm;
vegetable, bulb,group 3–07 at 0.20 ppm;
vegetable, fruiting, group 8–10 (except okra) at 0.10 ppm;
fruit, citrus, group 10–10 at 0.50 ppm;
fruit, pome, group 11–10 at 0.20 ppm;
and berry and small fruit, group 13–07 at 0.20 ppm.

Note that most are all less than one part per million.

Here are the residues allowed on Animal Feed.

Animal feed, nongrass, group 18 - 400ppm
Grain, cereal, forage, fodder and straw, group 16, except field corn, forage and field corn, stover 100 ppm
Grass, forage, fodder and hay, group 17 - 300 ppm
Kenaf, forage 200 ppm
Leucaena, forage 200 ppm
Teff, forage 100 ppm
Teff, hay 100 ppm

Or in general ONE THOUSAND or more the level allowed for humans.

So if glyphosate was an issue, we would certainly see it in our Livestock.
We don't.

New allowable levels on crops such as flax, canola and soybeans have been increased from 20 parts per million to 40 ppm, because our main use
is for OIL and because tests show glyphosate does NOT make it through the refining step.

They also increased the amount allowed on Carrots to 5 ppm because it is being used to desiccate the green tops, which aren't eaten, but are tested.

But what they determined is the MINOR change to the allowed levels would not cause a person to exceed the Reference Dose. See below for
description but first consider their documented tests:

A 1-year feeding study with dogs fed dosage levels of 0, 20, 100, and 500 mg/kg/day with a no-observable-effect level (NOEL) of 500 mg/kg/day.

A 2-year carcinogenicity study in mice fed dosage levels of 0, 150, 750, and 4,500 mg/kg/day with no carcinogenic effect at the highest dose
tested (HDT) of 4,500 mg/kg/day.

A multigeneration reproduction study with rats fed dosage levels of 0, 3, 10, and 30 mg/kg/day with the parental and pup no-observed-effect
level of 30 mg/kg/day

So the EPA used these and other tests to set the Reference Dose (RfD).

The RfD represents the level at or below which daily aggregate dietary exposure over a lifetime will not pose appreciable risks to human
health.

The RfD is determined by using the toxicological end point or the NOEL for the most sensitive mammalian toxicological study.

To assure the adequacy of the RfD, the Agency derives an Acceptable Daily Intake (ADI) and uses an uncertainly factor of 100 less than the RfD
in deriving it, based on the assumption that our species could be 10 times more sensitive to the compound than the most sensitive speices
tested and that some segment of the human population could be 10 times more sensitive than the average person.

The Agency has determined an ADI of 1.75 mg/kg/day based on the maternal toxicity NOEL of 175 mg/kg/day from the developmental study with
maternal rabbits.

So that's the maximum of what the EPA allows in our food, 100 times less than the NO OBSERVABLE EFFECTS LIMIT in the MOST sensitive species
tested.

BUT

To ensure that, they set the Maximum Residue Limits (MRL) on all of our food.
The MRLs are set are ALSO very conservative, to insure you don't get over 1.75 mg per kg per day they use a "worst case" dietary risk model of
an individual eating a lifetime of food derived entirely from glyphosate-sprayed fields and all with residues at their maximum levels.

To see how all these conservative assumptions work together let's assume you are a vegetarian and eat a mix that is on the extreme high end of
residue levels and you consume food which is at an average of 5 ppm per day.

So 200 grams of food would yield 1 mg of glyphosate.

You weigh 80 kg or 176 lbs.

To get 1.75 mg per kg you would need to get 140 mg of glyphosate residue.

So you would need to eat 200 * 140, or 28,000 grams of this 5 ppm produce to get to the 1.75 mg per kg per day level.

There are 28 grams in an ounce, so that's 1,000 ounces.
There are 16 oz in a pound, so you would need to eat 62 lbs of produce.

Each day.

And if you managed that, that would only get you to a level that is 100 times less then the NOEL level in the most sensitive species tested.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][Ray Lutz]] But Arthur Doucette, the test in question did not include glyphosate at all so it was not a glyphosate study. I will take that up in a separate thread, but the post above is good information that can contribute to that discussion.

Thomas Borreson said: So, even presuming shenanigans, the "GMO toxin" would have to be highly selective and only affect this one rat, and not the other rats, and not the countless other rats in countless other studies.

Response: Wrong. The other rats may also be affected but since you can't up the dosage in animal feeding studies, they are very insensitive. The other rats may have been affected had the test been longer or the % in the feed could be higher (which is possible if they use both GMO Corn and GMO soy, it could be as high as 66% or more)

And there are never countless anything. When you actually count them, there are not that many studies that have been both peer reviewed and adequately replicated, long enough, and not tweaked, like this one, by ignoring a death that was not adequately explained.

I continue to be amazed that almost no one here gives these studies much critical review. "There are countless studies" you say. Have you actually reviewed them? Are the replicated? "Counless" only means you haven't even spent the time to count them.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] Show us where someone other than yourself has some evidence of a "gmo toxin" and that it's alleged existence has been postulated from something other than what appears to be a hunch on your part.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][Ray Lutz]] Sure, that is easy, Michael Fest. Hammond himself talks of the risk of eating GMO feed, and that the risk can be reduced by not feeding animals 100% GMO feed.

Maybe you can explain what Hammond means by "safety margin"? Safety for what?? The term "exposure" implies it is a toxin.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] ...

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] Ray Lutz, Hammond is talking about the scaling up of the experiment under the hypothesis that there was something toxic about roundup ready grain. He is pointing out that the animals were fed 100% roundup ready whereas humans don't consume 100% roundup ready, moreover humans don't consume that much corn as a fraction of their diet.

Animal feeding trials are designed to provide a safety margin in that the animals are fed FAR FAR more of the food than humans would consume.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1629337384&fref=ufi][David Brown]] Or to put it in freshman year stats terms:
Ho: No toxicity
Ha: Food is toxic

A research constructs an experiment to test for evidence against the null with the alternative being toxicity. Just because a researcher talks about the alternative hypothesis in an experiment doesn't mean there is any evidence to reject the null and support the alternative.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] He also notes, regarding "safety margins":

>> It has been recognized that whole foods cannot be fed to laboratory animals at the high exposure levels used in the hazard assessment of pesticide chemicals and food additives (FAO 1996; Dybing et al., 2002; Hammond et al., 1996). Typically safety margins (animal exposure/ human exposure) of at least 100-fold or greater are achieved in hazard assessment studies with chemicals. However, safety margins of less than 100 are typical for studies with whole foods since there are limits to how much food a laboratory animal can tolerate before nutritional problems intervene (Borzelleca, 1996). Attempts to achieve higher safety margins by feeding laboratory animals the whole food exclusively in the diet, and ignoring the nutritional consequences, can result in the generation of uninterpretable data. This was demonstrated years ago in some of the toxicology studies carried out with irradiated foods. Feeding nutritionally unbalanced diets had negative effects on animal health that confounded interpretation of the study results (Pauli and Takeguchi, 1986). Furthermore, some foods that are wholesome for humans are not well tolerated when fed at exaggerated doses to laboratory animals (Elias, 1980; Hammond et al., 1996).

He is referring to a basic practice in such studies where you expose the test animal at a higher threshold than is typical for human exposure.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Thomas Borreson said: So, even presuming shenanigans, the "GMO toxin" would have to be highly selective and only affect this one rat, and not the other rats, and not the countless other rats in countless other studies.

>> Response: Wrong. The other rats may also be affected but since you can't up the dosage in animal feeding studies, they are very insensitive.

I'm not really sure how my assertion is wrong. Bear in mind that the control rats and the treatment rats had no statistically significant differences in blood/urine chemistries, organ mass, or body mass. And, the tissue necropsies on the surviving treatment group came up clean.

So, even presuming that the mystery death rat were being excluded to cover up a poisoning, it does beg the question of why the other rats gave absolutely no indication of being poisoned.

>> The other rats may have been affected had the test been longer or the % in the feed could be higher (which is possible if they use both GMO Corn and GMO soy, it could be as high as 66% or more)

You're inadvertently correct. Running an experiment for longer than 13 weeks with S-D rats definitely would have had an effect, yes, which is the reason why S-D rats aren't used in longer-term studies; you don't want the effects of their ageing to introduce variables which overwhelm the effects of the treatment. And, feeding the rats an unbalanced diet would have had a poor effect upon their health wether it was transgenic in origin or not. There are all kinds of ways that one could introduce such variables to muddle the results of the test. I'm just not sure why one would want to...

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[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/michael.fest1?fref=ufi][Michael Fest]] Ray, perhaps I wasn't clear enough. I was asking for evidence of a "gmo toxin". You are extrapolating from the text that Hammond has suggested this when, in fact, he hasn't.
I was hoping for some actual mention of this toxin from a source we could evaluate.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][Arthur Doucette]] Here you go Ray Lutz: 90 day trial on Mon810, which includes the mEPSPS event tested in Hammond 2004 http://www.grace-fp7.eu/.../GRACE-FeedingTrials_AB... The feeding
trials were performed by taking into account the guidance
for such studies published by the EFSA Scientific Committee
in 2011 and the OECD Test Guideline 408. The results obtained show that the MON810 maize at a level of up to 33 % in the diet did not induce adverse effects in male and female Wistar Han RCC rats after subchronic exposure, independently of the two different genetic backgrounds of the event. ==> This was 2 feeding trials of 160 rats each (5 groups of 32 rats). The results included no signs of morbidity and mortality were observed throughout the 90-day feeding period, and the daily clinical observations did not reveal any signs of functional deficits.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][Arthur Doucette]] Here you go Ray Lutz, this is Hammond et all, in 2006, on Mon810, which includes the mEPSPS event tested in 2004. They lost 1 rat out of 400, this time from one of the reference groups, but all tested rats were healthy. http://216.92.66.74/.../b/b0/Hammond_Study_Bt_corn_ECB.pdf

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[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/arthur.doucette.35?fref=ufi][Arthur Doucette]] http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18787312

A 104-week feeding study of genetically modified soybeans in F344 rats]. Sakamoto Y1, Tada Y, Fukumori N, Tayama K, Ando H, Takahashi H, Kubo Y, Nagasawa A, Yano N, Yuzawa K, Ogata A.

A chronic feeding study to evaluate the safety of genetically modified glyphosate-tolerant soybeans (GM soybeans) was conducted using F344 DuCrj rats. The rats were fed diet containing GM soybeans or Non-GM soybeans at the concentration of 30% in basal diet. Non-GM soybeans were a closely related strain to the GM soybeans. These two diets were adjusted to an identical nutrient level. In this study, the influence of GM soybeans in rats was compared with that of the Non-GM soybeans, and furthermore, to assess the effect of soybeans themselves, the groups of rats fed GM and Non-GM soybeans were compared with a group fed commercial diet (CE-2). General conditions were observed daily and body weight and food consumption were recorded. At the termination (104 weeks), animals were subjected to hematology, serum biochemistry, and pathological examinations. There were several differences in animal growth, food intake, organ weights and histological findings between the rats fed the GM and/or Non-GM soybeans and the rats fed CE-2. However, body weight and food intake were similar for the rats fed the GM and Non-GM soybeans. Gross necropsy findings, hematological and serum biochemical parameters, and organ weights showed no meaningful difference between rats fed the GM and Non-GM soybeans. In pathological observation, there was neither an increase in incidence nor any specific type of nonneoplastic or neoplastic lesions in the GM soybeans group in each sex. These results indicate that long-term intake of GM soybeans at the level of 30% in diet has no apparent adverse effect in rats.

[A 104-week feeding study of genetically modified soybeans in F344 rats]. -...

NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV|BY SAKAMOTO Y , ET AL.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][Ray Lutz]] Please note that for a rat to die during the 90-day study period is very unusual.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/mark.linhart?fref=ufi][Mark D Linhart]] Here we go again.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][Ray Lutz]] I notice Arthur that the rat in the study "A 104-week feeding study of genetically modified soybeans in F344 rats]." did not die on its own but instead was euthanized due to injury, so not the same as in Hammond.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] >> Please note that for a rat to die during the 90-day study period is very unusual.

Please note this begs a "so what", and ideally when one answers that one should avoid:
• non sequitur claims that this indicates "GMO poisoning", given that there was no evidence of poisoning of any sort over the course of the study.
• evidence-free conspiracist speculation.
• simply repeating PRATTs over and over.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] An example of the PRATT to avoid repeating is "we don't know what the mechanism is for GMO toxicity" or variations thereof.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/borrtv?fref=ufi][Thomas Borreson]] These, by the way, are strictly suggestions as to how you can make a sound argument, Ray. I obviously don't have any power to keep you from making an unsound one.

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[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/chad.niederhuth?fref=ufi][Chad Niederhuth]] Ray Lutz, where did you get that chart from?

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[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/raylutz][Ray Lutz]] I still think it is helpful to see the 90-day study period in context of the probability density function for deaths of Sprague-Dawley rats.

I generated that chart based on the data from the referenced study on Sprague-Dawley rats, assuming a normal curve, and calculating the mean and SD based on the numbers from that study. (mean 760 and sd 169), Chad Niederhuth

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[[https://www.facebook.com/Jodi818?fref=ufi][]]

[[https://www.facebook.com/Jodi818?fref=ufi][Jodi DeHate]] This conversation has run it's course and it keeps looping like a NASCAR race, except no one has won. It's time to close this thread. Any comments after this will be deleted.

Title	The Question of Hammond's Dead Rat
Publisher	CitizensOversight
Author	RayLutz
PubDate	2015-06-08
MediaLink	https://www.facebook.com/groups/GMOSF/permalink/573455566127031/
Note	Facebook Transcript
Keywords	GmoOpenForum
MediaType	Article
MediaGroup	News
CuratorRating	Plain