77thStateAssemblyDistrict

represents 423,000 plus people – more than the population of Wyoming. This district includes all, or portions of El Cajon, La Mesa, Santee, Ramona, Lakeside, Jamul, and the City of San Diego. Includes all Miramar Naval Air Station and the center of University City. There were 206,555 registered voters on Jan 22, 2008

• Redistricting Information: http://www.assembly.ca.gov/committee/c7/asmfinal/AD77.HTM
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Key Issues in 2008

• Sunrise Powerlink -- Large transmission line to be run 150 miles from Mexicali to Warner Springs
• Blackwater Potrero -- 824 acre mercenary Training camp in Potrero
• Grossmont Healthcare Board -- One full-service emergency hospital for the entire east county incurred three avoidable deaths in recent months.
• Santee Lakes Privatization -- Joel Anderson wanted to privatize Santee Lakes and turn it over to KOA Kampgrounds.
• Budget stalemate -- Anderson believes that taxes hurt the economy and he has signed a no-tax increase pledge. Lutz believes reasonable taxes actually helps the economy and we must adequately fund our governmental services.
• Border Issues -- Some fencing is appropriate near communities but a continuous fence will not fix our immigration problems, and comprehensive reform is the appropriate approach.
• Tribal Governments -- The 77th Assembly District is the home of large and well funded Native American tribes, such as Sycuan, Viejas, Barona, and Campo.

Population (2001)

	COUNT	PCT%	1991 DIFF
TOTAL	423,388	100.00%	0.00%
HISPANIC	63,697	15.04%	-11.03%
WHITE	315,834	74.60%	24.80%
BLACK	14,357	3.39%	-4.59%
ASIAN	15,925	3.76%	-8.95%
HPI	1,839	0.43%	-0.31%
NAT.AM.	5,784	1.37%	0.52%
OTHER	3,916	0.92%	-0.01%

Places in the District (2001)

PLACE	%IN	POP
San Diego County	15.05%	423,388
Alpine (U)	100.00%	13,143
Borrego Springs (U)	100.00%	2,535
Bostonia (U)	100.00%	15,169
Casa de Oro-Mount Helix (U)	91.00%	17,175
Crest (U)	100.00%	2,716
El Cajon (C)	100.00%	94,869
Granite Hills (U)	100.00%	3,246
Harbison Canyon (U)	100.00%	3,645
Jamul (U)	85.73%	5,075
La Mesa (C)	100.00%	54,749
Lakeside (U)	100.00%	19,560
Ramona (U)	100.00%	15,691
Rancho San Diego (U)	100.00%	20,155
Remainder of San Diego (R)	26.88%	39,332
San Diego (C)	2.81%	34,320
San Diego Country Estates (U)	100.00%	9,262
Santee (C)	100.00%	52,975
Spring Valley (U)	0.00%	0
Winter Gardens (U)	100.00%	19,771

Recent History in this district

Election	Registration			Results
		Party	Voters	Percent	Candidate	Vote	Percent
1996 (P)	Dem			Janet Gastil	48,714	39.81%
	Rep			Steve Baldwin	68,475	55.96%
	DTS
	Total				122,367
1998	Dem			Marge Carlson	37,962	38.75%
	Rep			Steve Baldwin	56,622	57.80%
	DTS
	Total				97,962
2000 (P)	Dem	80,052	38.21%	Todd Keegan	52,554	41.20%
	Rep	84,848	40.50%	Jay La Suer	66,645	52.25%
	DTS	31,896	15.22%
	Total	209,506			127,550
2002	Dem	71,655	31.28%	Sarah Lowery	30270	28.6%
	Rep	107,155	46.77%	Jay La Suer	70315	66.4%
	DTS	37,055	16.17%
	Total	229,096			105832
2004 (P)	Dem	71,355	30.06%	Chris Larkin	53,051	32.17%
	Rep	110,941	46.73%	Jay La Suer	106,827	64.78%
	DTS	43,489	18.32%
	Total	237,400			164,900
2006	Dem	62,934	29.42%	Chris Larkin	41,292	35.97%
	Rep	99,957	46.73%	Joel Anderson	69,436	60.49%
	DTS	40,803	19.08%
	Total	213,900			114,787
2008-02	Dem	61,845	29.94%
	Rep	94,683	45.84%
	DTS	40,162	19.44%
	Total	206,555			124,134
2008-06	Dem	64,772	30.41%	Raymond Lutz	26,384	37.85%
	Rep	96,507	45.32%	Joel Anderson	43,016	61.70%
	DTS	41,806	19.63%
	Total	212,946			69,712
2008-11	Dem	71,343	30.90%	Raymond Lutz	52564	38.88%
	Rep	101,466	43.95%	Joel Anderson	75269	55.67%
	Lib	1,424	0.61%	Richard G. Belitz	7361	5.44%
	DTS	47,329	20.50%
	Total	230,839

Notes for 2008-11 election

• Registration for as of 2008-11-02, but there were still 15,000 registration forms to process.
• Total of R+D Registrations is 71,343 + 101,466 = 172809. Of this, there are 41.28% Democrats and 58.71% Republicans.
• Of vote received as of 11-06, total of R+D votes is 52564 + 75269 = 127833. Of this, 41.11% are Democratic and 58.88% Republicans.
• Therefore, without massive media exposure, voters DO NOT CROSS PARTY LINES, and Decline-to-State voters vote break out just like the party affiliations.
• To win this seat (if we do not have more media exposure), we need 75,269 - 52,564=22,705 Democratic voters or half as many Republican converts.
• There are about 56,929 unregistered possible voters, meaning we need to register about 40% of the remaining voters as Democrats and register no Republicans.

• Current (2008-06) deficit is 31,735, assuming DTS voters split evenly (which they don't).
• Note change in district registration totals due to redistricting jerrymandering from 2000 to 2002 election.

Candidates

• Raymond Lutz - Current Democratic opponent. See http://www.LutzForAssembly.com
• Joel Anderson - Current seat holder
• Chris Larkin - Ran in the 2004 and 2006 elections.

Notes

From Census 2000

County	Population, 18 years and over			Citizens, 18 years and over			Percent citizens, 18 years and over
		Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female
San Diego County	2,093,082	1,042,461	1,050,621	1,788,073	897,147	890,926	85.4	86.1	84.8

Could we make up the difference by sending out registration forms by mail?

• Total population of San Diego County (in Year 2000): 2,813,833
• Percent of Population, 18 years and over: 74%
• Percent of population, Citizens, 18 years and over: 63.5% <-- This is the total number of possible voters.
• Assuming 425,000 is the correct population of the district, then we would have a total pool of 269,875 possible voters.
• There are 212,946 registered voters, leaving 56,929 unregistered possible voters.
• According to PoliticalData.com, there are 212,362 voters and 119,152 houses, or 56% of the number of voters.
• A mailing to reach all unregistered voters would require 31,880 mailers.
• Postcards could be mailed at the rate of 0.33 to 0.42 each, according to Pure Postcards.
• Assuming 0.33 ea., a invitation to register could be mailed to all unregistered citizens over 18 for $10,520
• Assume that 5% of those who recieve the mailer actually respond (which is a high rate), then 2846 people would register.
• At a $3 bounty, we would realize revenue of $8538, making the net cost of the effort $1982
• There are other costs that will be incurred regarding sending out the registration form, etc.

The problem is identifying citizens over 18 who are not registered. However, the complete list of registered voters could be subtracted from the list of all the residents.

This strategy will only work in a climate where we expect most new voters to register as Democrats.

Raw Count Data from PoliticalData.com

	Voters	Houses
TOTAL	214,611	120,067
PHONE	134,091	73,408
DEMOCRATS	65,454	48,321
REPUBLICANS	96,864	63,285
DECLINE TO STATE	42,377	34,623
AMERICAN INDEPENDENT	5,836	5,346
GREEN	927	877
PEACE & FREEDOM	383	371
LIBERTARIAN	1,362	1,259
MISC	1,408	1,320
PRIMARY QUALIFIED DTS	43,785	35,625
INDEPENDENT	48,439	38,915
MINOR PARTY LIBERAL	1,724	1,641
MINOR PARTY CONSERVATIVE	2,130	1,951
PURE DEM	40,578	28,263
PURE GOP	66,642	40,766
MALE	99,240	83,089
FEMALE	114,308	94,724
GENDER UNKNOWN	1,063	1,042
AGE 18-24	20,962	17,739
AGE 25-34	30,095	24,331
AGE 35-44	34,135	27,103
AGE 45-54	48,331	37,603
AGE 55-64	38,721	30,311
AGE 65+	42,367	31,890
HOMEOWNER	134,372	74,844
MOBILE HOME	11,219	7,699
EMAIL	38,821	32,393
RENTER	37,681	28,860
FOREIGN BORN	14,017	11,603
US BORN	190,448	110,928
AFRICAN AMERICAN	0	0
LATINO	19,964	13,408
ASIAN	3,881	2,573
CHINESE	644	462
CHINESE / KOREAN	116	84
CHINESE / VIETNAMESE	86	67
CHINESE / KOREAN / VIET	50	38
FILIPINO	1,369	960
JAPANESE	556	372
KOREAN	215	153
SE ASIAN	26	16
VIETNAMESE	818	491
ASIAN / ANGLO	558	392
ARMENIAN	217	146
EAST INDIAN	196	137
JEWISH	4,440	2,948
PERMANENT ABSENTEE VOTER	85,377	56,304
1+AV	85,700	55,993
1+AV OR PAV	100,647	65,084
2+AV	64,214	42,916
2+AV OR PAV	90,256	59,050
3+AV	49,540	33,658
3+AV OR PAV	87,984	57,748
REG<11/00	78,113	51,148
REG 11/00 - 10/03	26,707	21,223
REG 10/03 - 11/04	33,487	27,149
REG 11/04 - 11/06	61,004	46,770
REG 11/06 - 2/08	21,520	18,596
REG>2/08	19,254	16,801
VOTED 2000 PRIMARY	89,212	60,062
VOTED 2000 GENERAL	121,570	78,719
VOTED 2002 PRIMARY	62,945	43,086
VOTED 2002 GENERAL	95,306	62,424
VOTED 2003 STATEWIDE RECALL	122,977	77,974
VOTED 2004 PRIMARY	91,603	60,032
VOTED 2004 GENERAL	158,290	95,856
VOTED 2005 STATEWIDE SPECIAL	105,305	67,500
VOTED 2006 PRIMARY	74,450	49,640
VOTED 2006 GENERAL	121,054	76,066
VOTED 2008 PRIMARY FEBRUARY	123,387	77,236
VOTED 2008 PRIMARY JUNE	74,871	49,342