Strange Data In GUHSDRace

I gathered data for the Secure Accurate Elections project but I went a bit too far, collecting all the data for two precincts. Then I found out they only wanted data for three races. However, I noticed some remarkable data in the GUHSD race. Take a look.

First, I want you to look at some other races for comparison. You will note that they mainly mirror the final results, esp. for this county. And, all the machines reported similar results. Except for the GUHSD Race.

First, notice that each machine was about equally used, except for 558720-5 which had only 33 votes. However, according to sampling theory, we need only about 30 samples to estimate a fairly large population.

In the race for Governor, we can note that the leader led on every machine and the counts looked very similar. Same for Garamendi/McClintock and Bowen/McPherson. Indeed, in this conservative East County area, these state wide races were quite different from the actual results, being counter-balanced by the rest of the state. We can't use local polling to determine statewide results.

In the Hunter/Rinaldi race, the counts are very consistent, and these counts are also very consistent with the county as a whole. Indeed, it should be easy to figure out how a race is going by just randomly polling a small number of voters in this precinct. It seems to mirror the county quite well.

I won't go on to list many more races. I can tell you they are much like these in that all machines were roughly the same.

Finally, take a look at the GUHSD race. In the first seven machines, Sobel either dramatically leads, or he is the second or third place finisher. However, the last two machines give quite anamolous results. Unlike every other race at these precincts, these two machines give the votes to Kelly and Groce. Why?

Precinct	558720				558800
Machine ID	1	2	4	5	2	1	3	4	5
Ballots Cast	62	54	50	33	68	60	63	59	61
Angelides	12	13	11	10	16	12	12	12	10
Schwarzenegger	49	29	38	22	51	46	50	44	51
Garamendi	19	17	19	13	16	17	22	21	19
McClintock	39	31	30	20	44	39	37	37	39
Bowen	15	18	14	12	20	18	17	20	16
McPherson	40	29	33	17	42	38	37	33	39
Hunter	38	37	29	19	45	37	35	38	43
Rinaldi	17	11	16	12	17	18	18	16	13
Hoy	23	18	22	15	28	23	27	17	26
Kelly	19	15	11	10	25	22	14	29	26
Sundstrom	22	11	23	12	21	13	19	14	16
Groce	22	14	16	10	18	19	13	28	23
Shield	17	16	10	12	23	16	15	26	20
Sobel	29	18	31	14	25	22	22	19	16

-- Raymond Lutz - 10 Nov 2006